Copyright © 2016 by Thomas Gangale
From ABC News: SpaceX's Next Rocket Landing Attempt 'Unlikely' to Succeed
'SpaceX has already shown it has the ability to recycle a rocket, but the company expects its next attempt to land a Falcon 9 at sea will be unsuccessful.
'Launching from Cape Canaveral at 1:21 a.m. ET Friday, Elon Musk's private space company will deliver a Japanese commercial communications satellite into a Geostationary Transfer Orbit high above the Earth's surface.
'Getting the JCSAT-14 into that orbit will require higher speeds and more fuel.
'As a result, the first stage of the Falcon 9, which SpaceX still plans to attempt to land on its drone ship, "will be subject to extreme velocities and re-entry heating, making a successful landing unlikely," the company said in a statement.'
Speaking as an aerospace engineer, this doesn't make sense. The first stage carried a full propellant load before and it will carry a full propellant the next time. Same first stage, same propellant load, same burnout velocity. The real difference is the upper stage; that is what will kick the satellite into a geostationary transfer orbit. But, as far as the first stage is concerned, a payload is a payload is a payload, so the next rocket landing attempt is no more unlikely to succeed than the previous one.
So why would SpaceX issue such a statement? Space technology is a risky business. If at first you don't succeed, well that was to be expected. The first time you succeed, everyone expects you to succeed again... and again... again. So now SpaceX is having performance anxiety. Elon Musk isn't sure he can get it up a second time.
It's not all that surprising that a so-called "NewSpace" company would stoop to such cynical spin-doctoring to lower expectations in the interest of its public image, for although "Old Space" may be decrepit, "NewSpace" is still adolescent, and it's far from surprising that a major news organ would uncritically repeat such corporate spin-doctoring for its lack of technical expertise, but both do a disservice in misinforming the public.
Thomas Gangale in Outer Space!
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