29 September 2014

Transnationalizing Earth 6: The Global Federal State

copyright © 2014 by Thomas Gangale
@ThomasGangale

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Having pubilshed my book chapter section on "The Transnational Islamic State" on 23 September 2014 as an international coalition began military operations in Syria, and my book chapter section on "The Submerged State." on 24 September 2014 in the wake of the United Nations climate change conference in New York, I might as well publish other section of the chapter, "Transnationalizing Earth," which speculates on trends that are influencing changes in the Westphalian nation-state system, or outright challenging it. The book manuscript is far from being in shape for publication, but I would like to circulate some of my ideas and hopefully stimulate discussion in the academic and policy communities. --TG


The persistence of sovereign states bereft of territory due to sea level rise, the incremental integration of Europe, the People’s Republic’s finessing of control over the other two Chinas, the transnational caliphate, and the American imperial project, present different solutions to the human need for security, community, and prosperity. The first is constrained by geography; only low-lying states will fall into this category. The next three are constrained by cultural geography: the European Union is unlikely to expand beyond the Continent, North Atlantic islands, and the Mediterranean; the Celestial Empire has its defined constellation of culturally and ethnically related governments; and a caliphate seeking to expand beyond predominately Islamic regions would precipitate no end of wars. The fifth vision, that of imposing global security via absolute mastery of outer space, is constrained by the ability to finance it, the tenacity to maintain it, and the sagacity to employ its capabilities with restraint so that, although all other states may resent it, few will be threatened by it. To extend the unipolar moment indefinitely, Stephen Walt counsels for the US to craft a strategy of self-restrain: to present a “mailed fist, velvet glove” and “practice random acts of self-abnegation (2002).” In short, Uncle Sam should be avuncular.
The conundrum, as Kenneth Waltz (2003, 29) put succinctly but eloquently just as the US was gearing up to invade Iraq, is that “absence of threat permits policy to become capricious.” Waltz and his school of his thought continue to believe that the unipolar moment is unstable and cannot be maintained indefinitely, and it must eventually devolve into multipolar anarchy. On the other hand, Craig sees no credible path from a unipolar world to a multipolar one.
The poor prospects of another multipolar order have led younger realists to conclude that the logic of realism today points toward the necessary formation of a world state. A world state would, by definition, be able to deal with subnational terrorism in a manner completely different from how it is being addressed today, by treating it as crime rather than as international aggression. Dealing with terrorism would become a question of international law and enforcement rather than one of foreign policy and war; the United States would no longer be- come the focus of terrorist enmity. A world state would, by definition, deal with the longer-term threat of global nuclear war by taking possession of all weapons of mass destruction, just as states today, following the dictum of Max Weber, possess a monopoly over all war-making weaponry. The obstacles to forming an actual world state are so staggering that it is a simple matter to dismiss it as utopian fancy. Be that as it may, for realists it has become the only logical alternative to unipolar American empire in an anarchical world (Craig 2004, 170-71).
The world that Craig describes as inevitably leading to a catastrophic nuclear war is one in which the United States retains global military superiority, but has failed to achieve military supremacy through absolute control of Earth orbit. However, the global military supremacy that the US is seeking through developing and deploying a leak-proof missile defense and absolute mastery of Earth orbit would mean the end of the anarchic Westphalian system. The American Empire, rather that being a theoretical concept debated among intellectuals, would become a fact. Just as in the 1st century BCE, the Roman Republic, comprising most of Italy, ruled over a larger Mediterranean world-system of noncitizens, so the American Empire would consist of a republic of citizens within its national borders, beyond which would be a global dominion of noncitizens, disempowered and subject to its whims. In many ways, this is the current state of the world; it is a world of states enduring ever-increasing constraints on their policy choices in the face of the American super-Leviathan. Robert Keohane (2003) points to the problem that the institutions of globalism, in which the US plays a dominant role, fail to provide democratic accountability. In the time of Thomas Hobbes (1651) it was sufficient for the sovereign to provide the security of defense, law, and order to legitimate his rule; in the age of self-determination and human rights, this is no longer sufficient. Washington is democratically accountable to only five percent of the human race, and the other 95 percent who are increasingly affected by the policies of Washington rightly resent this, for regardless of how benign Washington believes its policies to be, they are nevertheless made in the national interest, not necessarily in the global interest, and as Waltz points out, in the absence of threat policy can become capricious.
Creating a world state from this empire would entail extending citizenship to non-Americans. Many Americans would resist this, just as Romans were reluctant to extend citizenship to non-Italians. The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE was a conservative reaction against his radical agenda, which included empowering the common people, expanding the citizenship, and admitting uncouth, longhaired Gauls into the Roman Senate, all at the expense of the ancient Roman nobility of the Senatorial Order (Parenti 2003). His adopted son, as the emperor Augustus, did not care to hazard a repeat of that mistake; rather, he catered to the conservative nobility as his political powerbase. He also was politically astute enough to disguise his benevolent autocracy in constitutional offices, his innovation being merely that he held these several powers simultaneously, and some of them for life. Augustus asked the Senate’s advise as much as he expected its consent, and Rome went right on thinking that it was still a republic. It was another two and a half centuries, by which time both the Senate and the People of Rome had lost complete control of the government to the increasingly arbitrary rule of the emperors, before one of the most monstrous of them, Caracalla, decreed all free inhabitants of the Empire to be Roman citizens, in order to increase the tax base.
Hopefully it would not take the transformation of the American republic into a disguised autocracy, which is where Chalmers Johnson fears that it is heading, to extend the citizenship to its universal empire. America would need to either relax its self-image as an exceptional people or recognize other longstanding democratic states as being the domains of equally exceptional peoples, or reinvent that 19th century image of the melting pot greeting Europe’s “tired, poor, huddled masses, yearning to be free” through Ellis Island as a 21st century vision of a global melting pot, in which Lady Liberty embraces the entire human race: invigorated, prosperous, upright, and free. Of course, there can be no representation without taxation; in exchange for participation in the American political system, Europeans would be expected to bear the full expense of NATO, including its American components, Japanese and Koreans would be expected to pay for the American security blanket in East Asia, and so on. The free ride would be over.
This should not be an impossible deal for wise statesmen to negotiate, given that on a conceptual level there is something in it for everyone, and given that the alternatives are an autocratic and increasingly capricious Pax Americana that provides the world a peace scarcely worth its sacrifices, or the eternal peace of a world laid waste by a thermonuclear convulsion. Half a century ago, the man who directed the development of the first missiles intended to deliver nuclear warheads opined on the urgency of establishing a new home for the human race.
I say let’s do it quickly and establish a foothold on a new planet while we still have one left to take off from (Von Braun 1965).


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