04 September 2014

The Three Major US Foreign Policy Challenges: A Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation

Copyright © 2014 by Thomas Gangale
@ThomasGangale

Prioritize the three major US foreign policy challenges:
3rd: Follow through on the pivot to Asia. It's already in the works, and the rise of China is the long-term challenge to US leadership. The US needs to do the heavy lifting to keep its post-Second World War architecture of international order intact until India surpasses China later in this century. As India's time approaches, it will present the US with a new set of problems, but at least it is a pluralist society and a democracy.

2nd: Settle for a draw in Ukraine in the short term if NATO is too weak to do otherwise, but play for a win against Russia in the medium term using every means to isolate it diplomatically and economically. Russian autarky is unsustainable, and Russian autocracy will eventually collapse. The interesting game is the end game: dealing with a half-dozen or more nuclear-armed post-Russian Federation successor states.
1st: Get every Middle Eastern regime onboard and eradicate the Islamic State ASAP. The Islamic State is an unlike type, a cancer in the body of the Westphalian nation-state system. Kill it before it metastasizes to Europe and the US.

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