Part 1: Premises
Predicting the course of a political campaign, like predicting the course of a peacetime geopolitical game or of a shooting war, is difficult. There are a huge number of variables, some of them not well characterized. Always important, however, are the minds of the individuals in the lead roles. I am inclined to give credence to what several sources are writing about Donald Trump's psyche, his reasons for getting into the presidential race, for conducting it as he has, and for staying the course even as it becomes increasingly evident that his style of campaigning will result in a catastrophic loss for the Republican Party. Starting from a set of premises, I will make a prediction regarding Mr. Trump's future moves in the campaign.
Premise 1: Trump announced his candidacy as a ploy to extract a better deal from NBC-TV for renewing his reality show, and failing that, to make his program more marketable to other networks.
Somewhat plausible; however, he should have realized that branding illegal Mexican immigrants as rapists would burn his bridge back to NBC. Far from strengthening his negotiating position, NBC severed all business relationship with him, and none of the other networks will touch his brand, which has become as marketable as toxic waste. At this point, his only path back to television would be to own his own cable channel, which he would be forced to operate largely out of his own pocket because he would not be able to sell much advertising time. Oops!
Premise 2: Trump never expected to become the Republican Party's nominee.
Absolutely plausible! Who did expect it? Whether by conscious design or otherwise, he went through the book and broke each and every law of political campaigning. Who would do that who did not expect to lose? On the other hand, being such a showman, he probably figured he could finish in the middle of the pack without breaking a sweat, it would be fun to play to live audiences for a few months, at the end of which he could find some other way to gratify his vanity. Just beating up Jeb Bush and driving him out of the race would have been enough to declare victory. Then the unexpected happened: he tapped into a niche market of pissed-off, poorly-educated, white men of precarious economic prospects and rapidly dominated that market. It wasn't because he is any sort of genius, it was just dumb luck, a perfect storm of idiocracy which swept him to the Republican nomination. Oops!
Premise 3: Trump never wanted, nor now wants, to be president.
Who can doubt that Trump would be the most miserable president in American history? I don't mean to say that he would do an absolutely miserable job as president; that goes without saying. I mean to say that he would be absolutely miserable in the job of president. That's just not who he is. Sitting in the Oval Office, taking phone calls, sitting in cabinet meetings, listening to advisors drone on and on and on about policies and regulatory issues and budgets and legislation, It's done off-camera and it's tedious as hell. Fuggedaboutit! But now he's a few weeks away from the general election, and it's obvious that what got him to Cleveland won't get him to the White House. It's starting to be not so fun to be Donald Trump. He can't grow his brand out of his captured niche market of stupid white guys, so he's going to lose big time. That's no fun. The Republican professional political class is on his case to pivot to presenting a presidential image, but that's not who he is. He doesn't want to drone on and on and on about policies and regulatory issues and budgets and legislation, Even if it's done on-camera, it's tedious as hell. That's no fun. So, Trump can't win by playing himself, and he can't have any fun by playing someone he's not. Oops!
Part 2: Prediction
So what is the third option? What is Trump's exit strategy?
Since he's not going to get to gush and blush teary-eyed at the adoring crowd as the pageant's crown is placed on his head, he must have in mind some other way to declare victory. And, most of all, it must be fun. Since he can't beat Hillary Clinton, and he's beaten all of his many opponents for the nomination, who else is around that he can beat?
The Republican Party itself. It's easy pickings. It's already sprawled on the mat. All he needs to do is a big fat drop on it. Oooh! I'll bet that hurt!
But until that final slam, Trump must maintain the pretence of wanting to win. Hell yeah, like pro wrestling, the election is fixed, but he's the fixer. He'll mumble through a policy speech, then he'll go back to saying something outrageous for the cameras. He'll shakeup his campaign staff, like he gives a damn what they say or do. That'll create some buzz, then he'll go back to saying something outrageous for the cameras. The more provocative the better, as addicted onlookers need to increase their habit to maintain the same high. Alternating his public personae, he will torment the Republican leadership through a dance of the seven veils as they cling agonizingly to the desperate delusion that he is almost about to reform himself into a serious candidate. The hiring of Stephen Bannon signals a further step away from sanity, but Trump's next move could very well signal a step toward traditional campaigning. The object of Trump's game is simply to keep signaling, to keep the attention on him. Nothing else matters.
Right up until the first debate with Clinton. One would almost make the mistake of calling that the Moment of Truth were it not that there is no truth in Trump, but it will be the Reckoning. It will be the last stop on the Trump reality road show, because it will be an environment he can't control, a show he can't dominate with bombast and insult. He was able to play his Republican rivals off each other, they were more concerned about savaging each other than taking him down, but he is going to be the only one in Clinton's sights... Second Amendment people, don't go there! As much of a megalomaniac as Trump is, he has to know that Hillary will have him not only for dinner, but she will dine off his carcass from one debate to the next straight through to Election Day. A good hunter doesn't waste meat. That first debate is when it stops being fun and he is humiliated as the boorish ignoramus he is.
So this is my best guess as to how the Trump's series finale will play out. At the beginning of the first debate, the candidates will make their opening statements, as is traditional. It doesn't really matter who goes first; that will have been determined beforehand by a coin toss. If Clinton goes first, whatever she says is... whatever. It won't be remembered by anyone. Trump's opening statement will be the big reveal. It will be the last moment he can absolutely dominate. He will announce his withdrawal from the presidential race, and exit stage right. The limousine waiting outside the venue will whisk him away into the night as all hell breaks loose in the auditorium, in the reporting booth, in the country, but most of all, in the Republican Party.
October Surprise is going to come about a week early this year. Six weeks before the November election, the ballots will already have been printed and mailed to absentee voters. Trump's name will be on them as the Republican candidate for president of the United States of America, except that the party will no longer have a candidate. Trump's sudden exit will create a political vacuum which the party will scramble to fill but will be unable to at that late date, resulting in an implosion. No pitcher coming off the Republican bench will be able to save the game. It will be a laugher, a game far beyond reach. And what happens toward the end of a laugher? The stadium is mostly empty. Most of the crowd has gone to the exits to get in their cars ahead of everyone else. This presidential election will have the lowest turnout in the history of the republic.
Why would Trump do this? Because when all else is said and done, Donald Trump is an entertainer. What better than to make a grand exit which leaves even his legions of detractors wanting more, especially the broadcast media, which will cut from one talking head to the next, each one more open-mouthed and goggle-eyed than the last, for the remaining 80 minutes of the scheduled presidential debate, and for the remaining 40 days of the presidential campaign. What better way flip the finger to the Republican Party he has come to despise, from its swelling number of principled defectors to his dwindling number of amoral apologists.
Yes, he is that vindictive. Yes, he is that vainglorious. The one ambition remaining open to Trump is to play the part of the greatest political villain in American history. It's at least the next best thing to playing the hero, and arguably even better. After all, everyone remembers Richard III; no one remembers the Earl of Richmond. Also, it has been said that every person is the hero of his own story, and certainly Trump has show this to be at least as true of himself as of anyone, but who else but Trump could be both the hero and the villain in his own mind, and relish every act, scene and line?
My prediction assumes that there is some method in Trump's madness, an assumption which may be incorrect, as he may have no method at all. It may also be that I don't believe a word of what I have written here, that I am just another political entertainer. You might very well think that....
Thomas Gangale's Lies and Politics
